Thunderbolts, the Marvel Cinematic Universes next tentpole, is set to land on multiplex screens in China on April 30, just ahead of the movies North American release on May 2.

Thats good news for Imax, as Hollywood titles are crucial to its business in China, the worlds second largest exhibition market. But amid an escalating global tariffs turmoil prompted by U.S. President Trump, Wall Street has begun to weigh the impact on Imax from a Hollywood boycott measure imposed by China.

And the consensus is the impact will be limited, especially as a diversified Imax is likely to more than cope with local language movies on its screens in China. In its recent first quarter, Imax China generated a record $167 million in box office, mostly from local language films and the Chinese animated feature Ne Zha 2 in particular. From a financial standpoint, restrictions placed on U.S. produced movies are unlikely to have a meaningful impact, Roth analyst Eric Handler said in an investment note on Wednesday. In a normalized year, Imax generates approximately $100mn of gross box office in China from Hollywood movies. In the event of a Hollywood ban, we estimate programming substitutions from either local language content or other international imports could reduce the Hollywood exposure by half, to $50mn.

Speculation around Hollywood facing retaliation for U.S. tariffs in China follows social media reports from a Xinhua News Agency reporter that center on a possible ban on U.S. movie imports.

Those social media posts are seen as speculative and have not been followed up by statement from rival media outlets in China, market watchers caution. And its understood soundings from the China Film Bureau, which keeps a firm regulatory hand on the exhibition market in China, indicates no changes are planned for guidance or orders for U.S. films in that country.

Mike Hickey, an analyst with Benchmark Equity Research, also sees a full ban on Hollywood tentpoles in China as unlikely, given that countrys reliance on multiplexes to drive continuing consumer spending and shore up a vulnerable real estate market.

Ongoing approvals of foreign releases and recent record box office numbers signal confidence among regulators in sustaining a dynamic market rather than severing key content sources, Hickey argued in his own investment note on Wednesday.

The box office success of Ne Zha 2, which has earned over $1.1 billion in international box office, also bodes well for Imax in China should a U.S. film ban emerge, Hickey added.

Even if such a ban were to materialize, recent trends suggest that local productions, which already command a sizable portion of Chinas box office, could mitigate the disruption. As a result, revenue and profit impacts would remain meaningful but far from catastrophic, reflecting the rising strength and resilience of local language cinema in one of the worlds largest film markets, he argued.